About Tim Lawless

Tim heads up the RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia

Author Archive | Tim Lawless

A refresher on housing market measurements

Housing is Australia’s largest asset class, worth an estimated $6.7 trillion, so it’s important to measure the performance of this very important asset class in an accurate and timely manner. Recently there has been a lot more focus on the measurements of housing market performance, so it’s timely to provide a summary of the primary […]

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7 signs that the housing market may be peaking

There are mounting signs that Australia’s housing market may be moving through the peak of the cycle, however it is important to remember that strong housing market conditions have been evident in Sydney and Melbourne while every other capital city has shown relatively sedate conditions. CoreLogic’s September indices results, released two weeks ago, showed that […]

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Table National top 20

Some words of caution on housing supply

In a blog post produced a few weeks ago (HERE), we highlighted that the number of dwellings approved for construction reached an all-time high over the year to November 2014 with almost 200,000 approvals registered nationally.  Over the year house approvals were up 3.6% compared with an 18% increase in the number of multi-unit dwellings […]

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10 Tas IM stats

Record interstate migration to Victoria, while mining states are at or approaching record low interstate migration flows

The speed of population growth into Australia has been winding down since reaching a recent annual peak in December 2012 when the national population grew by 1.78% over the year. With overseas migration moderating and a slowdown in the rate of natural increase, the annual rate of population growth across the country has slipped to […]

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Annual growth in number of owner occupier housing finance commitments

Mortgage demand still strong but easing

New data was released by the ABS last week on housing finance commitments which showed an ongoing slowdown in the pace of housing finance growth.  The slower pace of growth in mortgages is another sign that housing market conditions are starting settle down. Excluding refinance loans, the number of owner occupier housing finance commitments was […]

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Melbourne units2

Investor owned dwellings are heavily concentrated within the inner city apartment markets

A large proportion of housing demand is currently being driven by investment.  Unfortunately in Australia we only receive information on owner occupier and investment ownership of properties every five years with the Census.  Because of this RP Data’s Analytics team have built a set of rules to determine the probability that a home is owned […]

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How important are clearance rates in the housing market?

Over the first five months of the year, across the combined capital cities of Australia, RP Data has recorded 35,367 auctions of which 24,320 (69%) sold either under the hammer or shortly before/after the auction date.  Over the same time frame we have recorded a total of 128,437 house and unit sales.  Based on these […]

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Melb index

Don’t expect Melbourne values to rise by 44% over the coming year

It was surprising to see an article published by Fairfax late last week that criticized our publication of monthly housing market statistics.  The article (that can be viewed here) remarks that the RP Data indices are ridiculous and implies that the monthly results are misleading.  The theme of the article focusses on the monthly result […]

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Chart 7

Unemployment peaks lower than forecast on lower participation

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) recently published labour force statistics for May 2014. The data reported that the national unemployment rate was steady at 5.8%, the 3rd month in a row it had been recorded at this level. The rate of unemployment is up from 5.5% a year ago but still well below the […]

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Major resource areas

Making a profit or loss from real estate: an overview of RP Data’s latest Pain & Gain report

RP Data has just released its quarterly Pain & Gain Report for the March 2014 quarter. Over the first quarter of the year, 9.8% of properties nationally sold for less than their previous purchase price meaning 90.2% of properties sold at or above their previous purchase price. This analysis doesn’t include expenses such as holding […]

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