About Tim Lawless

Tim heads up the RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia

Author Archive | Tim Lawless

empty-and-full-shelves

Stock levels remain well below average across the hot housing markets, but are close to record levels in Perth and Darwin.

With the spring ‘selling season’ done and dusted and Christmas rapidly approaching, it is worthwhile having a look at how stock levels have tracked over the season and year relative to previous years. One of the key facets of the housing market over the last year has been the shortage of advertised stock that has […]

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construction

Sharp fall in unit approvals in October likely marks the peak of the residential construction cycle

The Australian Bureau of Statistics October dwelling approvals data likely marks a significant turning point for unit supply, with the latest numbers showing unit approvals have plunged to their lowest levels in 2 years. The October data showed unit approvals have consistently trended lower since reaching a recent high point in July earlier this year. […]

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trump

US presidency: A trump card for Aussie housing or a bad hair day?

A new leader of the world’s largest super power will always be accompanied by uncertainty, however the election of Donald Trump highlights (in the words of another Donald (Rumsfeld)) that “unknown unknowns” have been amplified.  This means uncertainty.  Trump is untested, unproven, and if the election campaign is anything to go by, spontaneous.  While Trump’s […]

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A refresher on housing market measurements

Housing is Australia’s largest asset class, worth an estimated $6.7 trillion, so it’s important to measure the performance of this very important asset class in an accurate and timely manner. Recently there has been a lot more focus on the measurements of housing market performance, so it’s timely to provide a summary of the primary […]

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18

7 signs that the housing market may be peaking

There are mounting signs that Australia’s housing market may be moving through the peak of the cycle, however it is important to remember that strong housing market conditions have been evident in Sydney and Melbourne while every other capital city has shown relatively sedate conditions. CoreLogic’s September indices results, released two weeks ago, showed that […]

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Table National top 20

Some words of caution on housing supply

In a blog post produced a few weeks ago (HERE), we highlighted that the number of dwellings approved for construction reached an all-time high over the year to November 2014 with almost 200,000 approvals registered nationally.  Over the year house approvals were up 3.6% compared with an 18% increase in the number of multi-unit dwellings […]

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10 Tas IM stats

Record interstate migration to Victoria, while mining states are at or approaching record low interstate migration flows

The speed of population growth into Australia has been winding down since reaching a recent annual peak in December 2012 when the national population grew by 1.78% over the year. With overseas migration moderating and a slowdown in the rate of natural increase, the annual rate of population growth across the country has slipped to […]

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Annual growth in number of owner occupier housing finance commitments

Mortgage demand still strong but easing

New data was released by the ABS last week on housing finance commitments which showed an ongoing slowdown in the pace of housing finance growth.  The slower pace of growth in mortgages is another sign that housing market conditions are starting settle down. Excluding refinance loans, the number of owner occupier housing finance commitments was […]

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Melbourne units2

Investor owned dwellings are heavily concentrated within the inner city apartment markets

A large proportion of housing demand is currently being driven by investment.  Unfortunately in Australia we only receive information on owner occupier and investment ownership of properties every five years with the Census.  Because of this RP Data’s Analytics team have built a set of rules to determine the probability that a home is owned […]

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Values

How important are clearance rates in the housing market?

Over the first five months of the year, across the combined capital cities of Australia, RP Data has recorded 35,367 auctions of which 24,320 (69%) sold either under the hammer or shortly before/after the auction date.  Over the same time frame we have recorded a total of 128,437 house and unit sales.  Based on these […]

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