The numbers that matter in 2013 for the Victoria market…

Melbourne housing market for 2013As we near the year’s end there are a range of key numbers that can help explain the property market this year. This year’s results show that the residential real estate market was certainly healthier than last year, however it still remains below its peak despite being supported by record low interest rates. The high volumes of auctions were, along with moderate rises in value, a highlight but it is concerning that overall transaction volumes are still to recover substantially from 2011 and 2012.

Consumers are still acting conservatively and that prevented a new peak in house values being reached this year.

 

Sales volume

In the 12 months ending September 13 there were 6 per cent more dwelling sales than the previous 12 months. At the end of 2012 there were72,432 dwelling sales in Melbourne and the comparable number in 2013 is projected to be between 76,000 and 80,000.

 

Clearance rates

Melbourne fell short of a 70 per cent clearance rate following a softer market and higher supply in the last few months. It has ended the year with a clearance rate of 69.1 per cent which is 13 points higher than last year and second only to 79.4 per cent recorded in 2009.

 

Listings

The overall number of active listings is 35,524 in Melbourne, which is only 1.3 per cent lower than a year ago, indicates that the increase in new listings has been absorbed but has failed to clear the overall backlog.

 

Highest sales

In the 12 months ending September, the highest volume of house sales were in all in growth areas, Pakenham, Berwick, Point Cook, Frankston and Craigieburn.  In the unit market there were twice as many sales in Melbourne as the second on the list, Southbank.

 

Vendor Discounting

The amount that vendors of private sales need to discount from their advertised price was lower this year than a year ago at 6 per cent in October versus 7.2 per cent a year ago. For units the discounting also reduced,  from 6.6 per cent to 5.8 per cent.

 

Time on Market

Vendors of houses sold at private sale achieved quicker sales at 40 days in October compared to 49 days a year ago. For units it is 38.5 days compared to 43 days a year ago.

 

Values

House values in Melbourne still remain below their previous nominal peak despite a 6 per cent rise in house values this year. The house price index in November showed values were 3.2 per cent below the peak of October 2010.

 

Robert Larocca
RP Data Victoria Housing Market Specialist

About Robert Larocca

Robert Larocca has built a profile over the past eight years as an expert on the Victorian residential property market. He worked for the REIV both directly and as a consultant over 8 years acting as a spokesperson, managing its research department and public policy. He has been a media and government relations consultant and spent a decade working across the three levels of government including as a Councillor and Mayor in the City of Moreland. He has well developed leadership skills in the not for profit sector and has been the Chairperson of CERES Community Environment Park for 9 years.

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