Housing market sentiment remains high, but for how long.

RP Data, together with Nine Rewards, released an update to their housing market sentiment survey this week.  The headline findings showed that housing market sentiment was substantially higher than what it was six months ago, but virtually unchanged from earlier in the year.

The survey was conducted across 1,030 respondents who were located across the capital city and ‘rest of state’ regions around the country.  The headline findings showed 80% of Australians think it’s a good time to buy a home but only 37% think it’s a good time to sell.  The results suggest, at least from a consumer perspective, that housing remains a buyers market.

Good time to buy Good time to sell

With regards to consumer expectations for home values over the next six months and twelve months, the results were broadly positive, with 41% of respondents expecting values to rise over the next six months and half the respondents expecting values to rise over the next twelve months.  Both measures are a substantial improvement in the views of consumers from six months ago (33% of respondents expected values to rise over the next six months back in October 2012 and 42% expected values to rise over the coming twelve months in October last year).

Rise fall stable six months Rise fall stable twelve months

What’s more interesting is looking at some of the more granular results by region around the country.  There aren’t any real surprises here… the markets which are generally showing the most buyer activity and value recovery are also the markets where the largest proportion of consumers are expecting values to rise over the coming six and twelve months.

The Northern Territory (read Darwin), Perth and Sydney are the markets where the largest proportion of consumers are expecting values to rise over the coming six and twelve months.  Conversely, very few respondents are expecting improving values within Tasmania, regional South Australia and the ACT.

six month value rise by region twelve month value rise by region

 It’s worthwhile noting that the survey responses were collected prior to the federal budget announcement.  Based on the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Survey, which showed a sharp decline in May, it is reasonable to assume the improved confidence readings in the RP Data – Nine Rewards survey may have been dented post budget announcement.  Stay tuned in three months when we run the survey again.

More details in the media release and headline findings report can be found below:

About Tim Lawless

Tim heads up the RP Data research and analytics team, analysing real estate markets, demographics and economic trends across Australia

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